HD Update

Based on the Moore’s Law, when are we going to have holographic 3D HD Televisions?

The first sets of television were available since the late 1930s, which employed a combination of optical, mechanical and electronic technologies to capture, transmit and display a visual image. Then we had passive matrix LCDs that first became common in the 1980s (50 years later). Somewhere around the year of 2000, we had the LCD and Plasma television sets available, and today, almost everybody have them (HD TVs). And this summer, from out of nowhere, 3D HD TVs are on the market! This is just amazing of how technology comes “out of nowhere”, so fast. So having said that, what do you think will be next, after the 3D TVs? Would there be holographic 3D TVs? And if so when? (I’d say in 10-15 years, and you?)

To project a true holographic image into the room, you must project the whole 2D image from each pixel, with a small adjustment to the viewing angle for each pixel. So 1080p holographic image would need to project 1080 x 1920 = 2,073,600 times as much data as the 2D image. If the image data double every 1.5 years, it will take 1.5 log2(2073600) ≈ 32 years to get there.

A less realistic 3D effect can be achieved by projecting the same image from each pixel in a vertical column. As long as you don’t raise, lower or tilt your head, you get the full 3D effect. Then you only need 1920 times as much data, which would take about 16 years.

VR helmets promise to do a better job in less time with less band width. With a VR helmet, you can walk thru the 360° virtual world. Producing a VR feature film will be quite a challenge for movie directors. Most of it will have to be CGI.

EDIT: Don’t expect Moore’s law to apply to broadcast TV; the bandwidth ain’t gonna change. Cable has a much better chance of improving, but the real deal will be computers and media players.

Before I spend my money on a 3D LCD TV, I’ll need to see one in a darkened show room. My guess is, you still need to wear red & magenta glasses, the brightness is unsatisfactory, and effect is unrealistic.

I have watched a 3D version of “Journey to the Center of the Earth” on my 2 year old Samsung LCD HDTV, and it does a lousy job. I suspect the Samsung Blueray player separates the left and right images properly, but the Samsung TV interprets that as an error and tries to “correct” it.

Don’t waste your money until the industry gets it right, as they will eventually.

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